The Netherlands could face winters up to 3° colder on average — and as much as 15° colder during severe cold snaps — if a key ocean current in the Atlantic collapses, according to new research published on Wednesday.
The findings, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, focus on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a system of ocean currents including the Gulf Stream that helps keep north-western Europe relatively warm.
Research has already shown that the Gulf Stream is weakening and could come to a complete stop. And if the AMOC shuts down, winter temperatures in the Netherlands and other parts of northern Europe could plummet, despite global warming continuing overall.
The researchers stress that the study describes a “what if” scenario — but one that is not unrealistic.
Weather bureau KNMI, which contributed to the study, said it takes the new results seriously and KNMI director Maarten van Aalst told NOS the findings are already part of discussions with the government.
“This is not something that will affect us tomorrow,” Van Aalst said, “but it’s the kind of disruption that could emerge in the coming decades — and we should prepare for it.”
If the AMOC does shut down in a world that has warmed by 2°, the research suggests the cooling effect could outweigh ongoing warming in western Europe. “Especially in winter, we would see significant temperature drops,” said René van Westen from Utrecht University, one of the study’s authors.
“Policymakers are mostly focused on warming, but they may also need to think about what extra cold would mean,” he said. “Nature, agriculture, drinking water and energy systems are all shaped by weather and climate.”
Some people may welcome the idea of colder winters and the return of events like the Elfstedentocht skating race, Van Westen said.
“This is not a scenario you want,” he said. “Even if western Europe cools, temperatures elsewhere — especially in the southern hemisphere — would rise even faster. That would mean higher sea levels and more extreme drought in many regions.”